Brexit Britain’s economy grows again, confounding Rejoiners’ hopes

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This report has been co-published with our affiliated organisation, Brexit Facts4EU.Org. We are most grateful for their original research into the raw data which backs what follows.

Using official ONS data, CIBUK shows how the UK has grown since the EU Referendum

Latest GDP figures show more growth in November, against all predictions

On Friday (13 Jan 2023) the Office for National Statistics released its latest data on the economy of Brexit Britain. Once again its report has confounded the sceptics, showing growth – albeit small – in November.

Using the ONS’s own figures, Facts4EU.Org demonstrates how the Remainers’ dire threats of the UK’s economy “falling off a cliff” if the British people dared to vote Leave have proved to be completely false.

Can any Remainer-Rejoiner please tell the public when the UK’s economy “fell off a cliff”?

Below we show the progress of the UK’s economy, using exactly the same basis as the ONS used in its release of data on Friday. They plotted UK gross domestic product (GDP) using 2019 as a baseline.

In other words, this shows the real change in GDP over time. We have started in June 2016, when the great British public voted to leave the European Union. Voters were told at the time that the impact of a Leave vote would be immediate.

Clearly, the Covid pandemic intervened in March 2020 so we have shown growth up until that point.

Summary

The ONS’s UK monthly GDP index

From the Referendum to the start of the pandemic

Jun 2016 : 94.2
Feb 2020 : 100.2

[Source: Official ONS data published 13 Jan 2023, using their index showing real GDP growth.]

From the start of the pandemic to Nov 2022 (latest figures)

Mar 2020 : 93.1
Nov 2022 : 99.9

[Source: Official ONS data published 13 Jan 2023, using their index showing real GDP growth.]

Brexit Britain growing? What’s going on?

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in November 2022, following growth of 0.5% in October 2022.

The services sector grew by 0.2% in November 2022, after growth of 0.7% (revised up from a growth 0.6% in the ONS’s previous publication) in October 2022 and was the main driver of the growth in GDP. Production fell by just 0.2% in November 2022 and construction remained flat on the month.

The main driver of services growth in November 2022 was administrative and support activities, which grew by 2.0% in November 2022, following growth of 1.7% in October 2022. All six industries within this sub-sector saw growth on the month, with employment activities having the largest contribution with growth of 2.1%.

Telecommunications and computer programming, consultancy and related activities were the largest contributors, with growth of 3.9% and 2.4% respectively.

When will David Cameron and George Osborne apologise for misleading the British public?

Remainer-Rejoiners would rather the public forget about the wild threats from the government at the time about the immediate effects on the economy if the British public dared to defy them and voted for Leave.

These threats were many and various, but in this report we focus solely on economic growth. Somehow, outside the EU, the UK’s economy has continued to grow.

Photo left: PM David Cameron “high fiving” EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in Brussels

It must be said that there is no way of misreading the data. These are the official figures from the ONS.

November’s growth would have been higher without NHS “Track ‘n’ Trace”

As all readers will be aware, the Government spent a small fortune on Covid measures such as the NHS’s “Track ‘n’ Trace” programme. As these are rolled back, they artificially dampen real growth in the official figures.

Here is what the ONS said on Friday:-

“NHS Test and Trace and COVID-19 vaccination programme activity fell by 63% in November 2022, following increases in September and October. This was driven by a fall in vaccine activity as the autumn booster programme slows down. Overall, NHS Test and Trace and the COVID-19 vaccination programme contributed an estimated negative 0.2 percentage points to monthly GDP growth.”

– Office for National Statistics, 13 Jan 2023

In other words, without that NHS programme, growth would have been higher in November by 0.2%,
making it a respectable +0.3%.

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For the original report, click here : https://facts4eu.org/news/2023_jan_brexit_britain_grows

To read our second article of this series click here