It’s just obvious!

A series of post-referendum briefings.

Milton Friedman is quoted as saying that “It’s just obvious but you can’t have free immigration and a welfare state”.

Indeed.  Much of the conventional political thinking of the last twenty five years has suffered from ignoring “it’s just obvious”.

Here at Futurus, we have tried to explain why “it’s just obvious” about many political and economic matters for over fifteen years.

“It’s just obvious” that the UK’s participation in the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the EMS in 1990 would disintegrate.

“It’s just obvious” that the UK would never join the euro.

[Why Britain will not join the single currency, Futurus publication, 2002]

“It’s just obvious” that Scotland will never become independent on the basis of SNP proposals.

[The Scotland Referendum and the Lessons for 2017, Futurus position paper, 2016]

“It’s just obvious” that immigration, without superior capital or superior skills, must impoverish the receiving country.

[Warning: Immigration Can Seriously Damage Your Wealth, Social Affairs Unit publication, 2008]

“It’s just obvious” that the UK would vote to leave the EU.

[Nostradamus, Futurus Briefing, July 2016]

“It’s just obvious” that most professional economists and central bankers have lost touch with the accounting framework on which all economics is based.  Contemporary economics group-think is based on single entry bookkeeping – the road to disaster.

[Thinking in Decades and Centuries, Civitas Review, 2012]

So we are now faced with another “just obvious” situation.

“It’s just obvious” that the UK government’s Brexit plan should be to have a controlled exit process.  This should be initially based on retaining EEA membership with the provisions of the EEA used to control EU migration.  Legislation, deemed EEA relevant by the EU and by the EFTA-EEA states, comprises the Single Market (called internal market in the EU Treaties) and is about 25% of the entire EU acquis.

[Leaving the EU:  It’s not just about future trading arrangements, Futurus Briefing, September 2016]