Turnout could decide it!
An article in today’s Daily Mail gives the “remain” camp a lead of eight points. While this is depressing news, it’s not as bad as it sounds for the last time Ipsos Mori conducted a similar poll, the lead for “remain” was greater. We are closing the gap, even thought we still have much work to do if we are to pull off an historic victory.
This analysis by Anthony Scholefield suggests that one factor that could determine the result is turnout. Supporters of withdrawal are more likely to turn out and vote because, as a general rule, we feel more passionately about the subject.
Most assume that the total turnout will be about ten per cent less than in a general election, as in 1975. However, I have allowed for a higher turnout because the electorate has shrunk since 2015 because of individual voter registration and, therefore, some incorrect voters are no longer on the electoral roll.
There is an unequal distributional effect of this. Since benefits are not affected by the Leave-Remain result and there are no real Scottish issues involved, unlike a general election, the lower turnout will be mainly among Labour and SNP voters.
Who will turnout? David Cameron has said turnout is critical to the result but he certainly has not made the best arrangements for his side.
My projection (unlike the ORB poll data) is made after correcting for a lower turnout of a referendum vis-à-vis election. But it is before considering the effects of the 5th May elections in local authorities in Scotland, Wales and London.
To call the electorate back to the polls six weeks later is a substantial ask and, again, in London, Wales and Scotland, there is likely to be a dro off in votes on 23rd June.
Then there is the European football tournament which will be going on most of June. Once again, a depressant on votes.
The ORB polls clearly show that, as the number of voters goes down, so the Leave lead increases.
Leave Remain
Poll turnout figures 52 48
Only 85% most likely to vote 54 46
Only 68% extremely likely to vote 58 43
The older demographic voter will turn out because of its sense of civic duty and all polls shows the older demographic is much more likely to vote ‘Leave’. It is quite evident that the key voting block is the 11.3 million Tories, most of whom will vote.
While the 25 percent or so Thatcherite Tories will vote en masse to ‘Leave’, the question arises about the liberal or moderate Conservatives, Home Counties Tories. They will determine the outcome.
It is evident from the figures that, contrary to general elections, it is the Leatherheads, the Henleys, the New Forests, the West Kents, which will decide the outcome. They are the ‘Swing’ votes.
The moderate Tories are being asked to give ANOTHER BLANK CHEQUE to a Tory Leader when the last blank cheque was cashed in, in the form of nine extra Treaties. And I do not think they will make the same mistake again.
Opinion is now solidifying. It is possible there could be a major terrorist atrocity with EU links. {The draft of this piece was written before the Brussels attacks} or a major event on the Eurozone. Either are likely to increase the ‘Leave’ vote.
For all these reasons, I am calling the result of the referendum now – a win for ‘Leave’ – by about ten points.
We must remember the referendum is not the end; it is a stage, and what happens afterwards is what matters. The larger the ‘Leave’ vote, the harder it will be for Boris Johnson or another Tory Leader to come in and promise new (and better) negotiations to stay in the EU.
I am pleased to see reports in The Daily Telegraph indicating that the Leave Alliance proposals are being looked at with favour in Whitehall.
It is inevitable that, after a ‘Leave’ win, our proposals must be the only safe, sane way to execute withdrawal.
[Date extracted from March 2016 ORB poll]