‘Best-ever Brexit chart’ drops Budget Eve bombshell to ruin Rachel’s big day

Brexit has delivered a 12% rise in the UK’s economy plus a 6% rise in real GDP per head, confounding conventional wisdom and completely contradicting all the forecasts in a paper given to the OBR last week, according to our analysis of the latest official figures from the Office for National Statistics.

‘The best-ever Brexit charts’

On the eve of the Chancellor standing up in the Commons tomorrow, we can reveal that ‘the best-ever Brexit chart’ is back – and it just got even better with the latest figures. This brings it up-to-date with Q3’s results, taking it up to the end of September 2025.

Not only that, but it comes with a ‘big Brexit brother’ : a new chart which shows the growth in real GDP per head.

All charts below show the figures in real terms, after excluding the effects of inflation. They leave Rachel Reeves – and her pro-EU Treasury colleagues – with nowhere to go. When she rises to speak in the Commons tomorrow, the Chancellor will have to find other excuses for her tax rises.

Cause for celebration, whichever way people voted

Regardless of the way people voted in the EU Referendum nine years ago, today’s report represents good news for all.

Patriots across the country will celebrate. The fact the economy has grown far beyond expectations, and GDP per head has risen in real terms despite the impression given by the Chancellor, means the only places where this report will be greeted with despair are the offices of HM Treasury and those of certain media outlets. (See below.)

This new report, supplied in advance to GB News and updated with the figures for Q3 2025, (up to end-Sept), shows the UK’s economy has grown by 12.1% in real terms since the Referendum. Our previous chart made waves when it was published by GB News last month and we expect with its Budget Eve topicality this will hit many more hundreds of thousands of voters.

In an additional blow for Rachel Reeves in her attempts to blame her tax rises on Brexit, the analysis of the latest official figures by the Facts4EU think-tank proves that the UK has outperformed the EU’s Top 3 economies once again.

So that’s since the Referendum – What about since we left?

Above we showed how much the UK’s economy has grown since the Referendum. Inevitably we will be asked by Rejoiners why we are not showing what happened since we exited the EU Common Market and Customs Union at the end of 2020. So here it is.

The increase is even higher, at 14%, because of the economic dip caused by Covid. For that reason we have once again shown what happened to the EU’s Top 3 economies over the same period. The UK triumphed again.

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‘Best-ever Brexit chart’ now has a ‘Big Brexit Brother’ which is equally shocking

To make matters even worse for the Chancellor, the updated chart is accompanied by a new chart which completely overturns Ms Reeves’ claims that GDP per head has not improved since the 2016 EU Referendum.

This analysis of the official facts released by the Office for National Statistics shows that real GDP per head has actually risen by almost 6% since the British people voted to leave the EU – and has grown even faster since the UK finally left the bloc on 31 December 2020.

The period covered by this chart includes a time of mass immigration for the UK, including the so-called ‘Boris wave’. Despite the population growing, the chart shows that the economy grew faster.

Destroying the ‘academic’ paper given to the OBR last week

This report will devastate the authors of an anti-Brexit paper which was greeted with delight by various pro-EU media outlets last week. Prominence was given to a report written by academics and a senior member of the Bank of England which had been supplied to the OBR, claiming Brexit is responsible for a 6-8% drop in the economy. (It isn’t, as readers have seen above.)

This is important, as Rachel Reeves has made it clear on many occasions that she follows the OBR’s forecasts scrupulously, despite the fact they are always wrong. Below we quote from the academic paper’s summary, followed by an example of a headline last week from the pro-EU media.

Why use guesswork when you have the data?

This introduction alone should have set alarm bells ringing in the media offices which chose to splash this paper in their coverage. It refers to “Using almost a decade of data since the referendum” and then states it has used ‘simulations’, ‘estimates’, and a ‘survey’ to produce its apocalyptic results of Brexit having reduced UK GDP by 6-8%.

The paper’s authors say they had the data, as did we, so why didn’t they use it, as we did? Our charts are not ‘simulations’. They use the actual data from the last nine years. Our figure of a 12.1% growth in GDP is factual. Their figure of a reduction of “6% to 8%” is ‘academic’ guesswork. All they had to do was crunch the numbers, as we did.

This did not stop ‘the usual suspects’ reporting it

Here is one of the headlines last week.

“Brexit Hit to UK Economy Double Official Estimate, Study Finds”

“Brexit has caused almost twice as much damage to the UK economy than estimated by official forecasts, according to new paper…”
– Bloomberg, 21 Nov 2025

The new analysis by Facts4EU today completely negates this pro-EU report, showing the UK’s economy has grown by 12.1% in real terms since the Referendum, beating the EU’s Top 3 economies of Germany, France and Italy.

Not only that, but we have exclusively proved that GDP per head has risen by 6%, countering the misinformation the public has received, from the Chancellor herself amongst many others.