A ‘no deal’ Brexit is increasingly likely

The Labour Euro-Safeguards Campaign (LESC) has concluded that “a ‘no deal’ Brexit is becoming an increasingly likely prospect”, but a UK-EU free-trade agreement is likely to follow in due course.

In its latest bulletin, LESC analyses other possible outcomes – including the ‘Norway option’, extension or revocation of Article 50, or a second referendum. However, it finds that because none of these other ways ahead would appear to command a majority in the House of Commons, ‘no deal’ is a more likely outcome because it is the default legal position.

The bulletin continues, “It has to be said that the reason why we are in this position is that the UK’s Brexit negotiations have been abysmally badly handled, leaving the country with very little time to prepare for our orderly departure from the EU. We are therefore likely to be in for a rougher ride, at least in the short term, than we would have wished.

“How difficult the situation will be is very hard to predict, as is the impact that this will have on our national income over the next few years. What is clear, however, is that, despite all the difficulties which have been experienced, and the uncertain prospects for the future, not many people have changed their minds about Brexit since 2016. This is partly because, for many people who voted Leave, taking back more control over their lives was more important than short-term – or even longer-term – economic gains.

“We are not – by a long chalk – in as good a place as we hoped we would be. A combination of events and developments, which we have handled poorly, has left us with uncertainty and problems which we ought to have been able to avoid.  Faced with the situation we are in, however, we now need to make the best of it.

“As a nation we took a decision to leave the EU. We have to respect this decision and to make sure that we get through the short-term difficulties which now face us so that we can reap the longer-term benefits of being outside he EU.

“If it comes to ‘no deal’, once we are through the initial problems we very probably will be able to negotiate the free trade deal which was always the best interpretation of the referendum result and the one most likely to lead to both a prosperous future for the UK and one which leaves us fully in control of our own affairs. This is what we ought to aim to achieve.”

To read the full LESC bulletin, please click here: Bulletin1901BrexitEndGame