On the front line – thoughts from one campaigner
The big difference between this campaign and 1975 is the involvement of so many local activists and campaign groups. This means that, while high-profile politicians dominate the news headlines, there is a great deal going on underneath the radar of the media – local meetings, street stalls, leafletting and one-to-one conversations. The willingness of ordinary people up and down the country to give so much of their time to secure our country’s freedom will prove to have been a crucial factor in our victory if we win the referendum. In ones and twos, undecided voters and even a few “soft” supporters of remain are being won over.
As an example of how local groups and activists are making a difference, here are the thoughts of John Hart, who has been making the case for withdrawal in his neighbourhood in recent weeks.
Survey size & duration: A few score people interviewed by me personally one-to-one over the past month (gym, pub etc), with email follow-ups, with an additional few score interacted with exclusively over the email, sometime in bulk, mostly in ones and twos.
Location & character of surveyed individuals: Middle England, in the form of northeast Hampshire, for the interview effort. The email campaign was national (England & Wales), involving the National CV history network and relatives, friends and acquaintances.
Conclusions:
For every 10 people 2-3 for LEAVE (men more than women), 3 for REMAIN (women more than men), 4 or more UNDECIDED
Ignorance and delusion are rife. Economic consequences of Brexit are the overriding mega-concern. Self-rule, loss thereof, isn’t understood and doesn’t cut much ice when described, though mention of the REMAIN group as ‘Project Treason’ enabled some traction to be gained; and immigration is not a big worry around here, though the special case of Islamic terrorism excites profound anxiety universally.
Mostly useless to engage REMAINERS. They are in the grip of Euro-progressivism as the wave of the future, seeing themselves as cosmopolitan. They often have strong links with the Continent and see the continuation of these threatened by Brexit, with the Brexiteers themselves being patronised as throw-backs to an earlier phase of human evolution or actual fossils (“It’s a generational thing!”). A group that can be characterised as ‘metropolitan pinkos’ are especially prone to evince the aforementioned ideas.
UNDECIDEDS predominate, meaning all is to play for, as they are open-minded. A very commonly articulated opinion in this group is that a Big Voice has yet to emerge on the LEAVE side. More information is needed, these people say, for minds to be made up. They weren’t asking for more REMAIN insights because they have already heard the main message from that side: “Be afraid of economic meltdown!”
Two REMAINERS and quite a number of UNDECIDEDS have been moved towards LEAVE by this survey exercise.
Summary: LEAVE, having a more compelling and passionate story in the round and many more ardent advocates than the opposition, can win this referendum by outcanvassing the REMAINERS locally, but it would help enormously if the amplification was turned up by LEAVE centrally.