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Opinion Polls – are they accurate? Post Script

Anthony Scholefield Posted On June 2, 2016
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NEW ICM POLL CONFIRMS THE PROBLEM IN THE LAST ICM POLL

You may remember the problems I wrote about last week concerning the ICM poll of 13th-15th  May.

In short, the Leave percentage for the over 65s was understated and the Remain percentage was overstated – massively.  I also pointed this out to Martin Boon, the head of ICM.

We now have had a new ICM poll on 29 May showing, apparently, a dramatic swing to Leave, ending up with a 52-48 split in favour of leaving the EU.

Whoah!  A lot of this ‘swing’ is actually reflective of a more realistic polling of the over 65 vote.

On 15th May, this age group was polled as 95 Remain and 80 Leave.  It is now a much more realistic 76 Remain and 113 Leave and that is the main reason for the ‘swing’.

There is one other interesting change.  There has been a substantial fall in the Leave lead among 18-34 year olds (35-44 and 45-65 have been fairly static).  Why?  Maybe it is because they think the Remain side are taking them for fools.

The latest ICM poll has made big news in the last 24 hours.  It was such ‘big news’ that shares on Wall Street fell; there was a fall in the pound vis-à-vis the dollar, and a surge of betting on Brexit.

In reality, there was indeed a slight trend towards Leave but the change in the 18-34 percentage needs to be treated with caution. Much of the ‘big swing’ was simply a correction of the absurd polling data in the over 65 vote on the 13-15 May poll, analysed in my last email on this subject.

We need not worry about Wall Street, currency traders or betting punters but there is one thing that is important.  Our friends in Vote.Leave should not interpret the ICM poll change as a vindication of their ‘immigration’ publicity drive.  It is not.  (Immigration is very important but this is a referendum on EU membership not on immigration and not on the Single Market).

The critical voting group is still the comfortable Home Counties Conservative voters who are reasonably loyal to the party leadership and live in seats which are very safe in general elections.

We need 60% of the Conservative vote, preferably more.

We need to hammer home that voting for Remain is signing a blank cheque for more powers to be handed over to Brussels.

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Anthony Scholefield

Anthony Scholefield is Director of the Futurus Think Tank

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4 Comments

G
June 7, 2016 at 8:53 am
Reply

Reaction to the Boris interview by Marr on Sunday 05.06.16 was highly favourable. At least Boris was smartly dressed and we did not see a glimpse of his shirt hanging out (this was surely a gift for the biased BBC?). What went down well was the question he posed about the ‘Remainers’ plans to pay for the increased services needed for the, now, 333000 entering the UK which is set to continue and doubtless increase. Just what are the ‘Remainers’ plans to raise the necessary funds? We hear repeatedly that immigrants from the EU pay for themselves in taxes. But we see no sign of this surplus going into the cost of public services. Why is this? What is the plan?
I personally do not believe EU immigrants ‘pay for themselves’. I would be a believer if I saw ALL the tangential costs being offset to give a net sum. I see such indirect on-costs such as the cost of 0.5, yes, HALF the prison population of Wandsword Jail and the cost of deporting criminals (which is virtually impossible apparently) included in the tally.


Mrs Weeks
June 8, 2016 at 2:16 pm
Reply

Missed opportunities – Farmers in the South West picketed Morrisons about the money they receive for their MILK – outcome Morrisons sell Milk with a huge union jack stating the extra money charged will go to farmers and rightly so. But according to Rip off Britain the extra money is divided up between all the farmers in the EU. I live on a farm and I was not aware of this until Rip off Britain showed it a few weeks ago. Why is the EU flag not used as they get the money? – answer a lot of people would not pay more to help all the EU farmers but they would to help just British ones!! Very misleading to say the least to British people. Please remember that a picture can say a THOUSAND words. Most people have no idea they were paying extra for the milk to be distributed between all the EU farmers thinking it was for the UK farmers. Why have BREXIT not used this as a logo?? There are so many images that Brexit could have used to awaken British people more before it is too late. What about our Fishermen that have been treated despicably since we joined the EU. Less words and more relevant images please.


Johnson
June 17, 2016 at 3:02 pm
Reply

Why has nothing been said to the public about the audit of the eu which has never been signed off as they can’t find where the money has gone,?


    John Petley
    June 17, 2016 at 3:05 pm
    Reply

    Dear Sir, I can assure you that this subject has come up in a number of debates in which I have participated.

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Opinion Polls – are they accurate? Post Script
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